At what accuracy is guessing worth it with 0.25 negative marking?

With one mark per correct answer and 0.25 deducted per wrong answer, an attempt breaks even at 20% accuracy. A random guess on a four-option question is 25% accurate, which is above that line, so guessing is marginally worth it. Eliminating two options first raises accuracy to about 50% and makes the attempt clearly worthwhile.

How is the break-even accuracy calculated?

An attempt is worth making when accuracy multiplied by the marks per question exceeds the chance of being wrong multiplied by the penalty. Solving for accuracy gives penalty divided by the sum of marks and penalty. For 1 mark and a 0.25 penalty, that is 0.25 divided by 1.25, or 20%.

Does every NISM exam have negative marking?

No. Negative marking, total marks and the pass percentage vary by series and are revised from time to time. Confirm the current structure for your exam on the official NISM website before planning your attempt strategy.

NISM Negative Marking Calculator — Safe Attempt Planner

Your exam

Check the figures against your official NISM exam page before relying on them — they are editable.

NISM series

Total questions

Marks per question

Pass mark (%)

Negative marks per wrong

How will you attempt it?

Move the sliders to match how your last mock actually went.

Confident60

You know it, or it's a one-step calculation.

Eliminated two options20

Down to a coin flip between two answers.

Blind guess10

No idea at all — picking at random.

Attempted 90 · Left blank 10

That's more than the paper has. Reduce one of the sliders.

Projected score

0/ 100

PASS

Where your marks come from

Assumed accuracy per attempt type is shown — adjust it under Assumptions below.

Attempt type	Qs	Right	Wrong	Net marks

Should you guess?

With these settings, a guess breaks even at an accuracy of

20.0%

Share your plan

Sends a short summary — no personal data, nothing stored.

Assumptions — change them if you disagree

Accuracy is what fraction of each attempt type you actually get right. A blind guess on a four-option question is 25% by definition. "Confident" is set below 100% because confident answers are still sometimes wrong.

Confident accuracy (%)

Two-eliminated accuracy (%)

Blind-guess accuracy (%)

Why "never guess" is usually wrong advice

A wrong answer costs you the negative mark. A right one earns a full mark. So an attempt is worth making whenever accuracy × marks beats (1 − accuracy) × penalty.

With one mark per question and 0.25 deducted per wrong answer, that line sits at 20% accuracy. Random guessing on four options gives you 25% — just above it. Eliminating two options puts you at 50%, which is strongly worth attempting.

The real danger isn't guessing. It's being confidently wrong — picking an attractive distractor at worse than one-in-five. That is what quietly drains a borderline scorecard, and no calculator can see it. Your mock history can.

Is this official?

No. This is a planning tool built by BullWiser. Exam structure, marks and negative marking vary by series and are revised periodically — always confirm against the official page for your exam at nism.ac.in. BullWiser is not affiliated with or endorsed by NISM.

Know your real accuracy, not your guess at it

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